A gain-loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage-wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods

Precipitation is the cause of major perturbation to the flow in urban drainage and wastewater systems. Flow forecasts, generated by coupling rainfall predictions with a hydrologic runoff model, can potentially be used to optimize the operation of integrated urban drainage–wastewater systems (IUDWSs) during both wet and dry weather periods. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have significantly improved in recent years, having increased their spatial and temporal resolution. Finer resolution NWP are suitable for urban-catchment-scale applications, providing longer lead time than radar extrapolation. However, forecasts are inevitably uncertain, and fine resolution is especially challenging for NWP. This uncertainty is commonly addressed in meteorology with ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). Handling uncertainty is challenging for decision makers and hence tools are necessary to provide insight on ensemble forecast usage and to support the rationality of decisions (i.e. forecasts are uncertain and therefore errors will be made; decision makers need tools to justify their choices, demonstrating that these choices are beneficial in the long run). <br><br> This study presents an economic framework to support the decision-making process by providing information on when acting on the forecast is beneficial and how to handle the EPS. The relative economic value (REV) approach associates economic values with the potential outcomes and determines the preferential use of the EPS forecast. The envelope curve of the REV diagram combines the results from each probability forecast to provide the highest relative economic value for a given gain–loss ratio. This approach is traditionally used at larger scales to assess mitigation measures for adverse events (i.e. the actions are taken when events are forecast). The specificity of this study is to optimize the energy consumption in IUDWS during low-flow periods by exploiting the electrical smart grid market (i.e. the actions are taken when no events are forecast). Furthermore, the results demonstrate the benefit of NWP neighbourhood post-processing methods to enhance the forecast skill and increase the range of beneficial uses

Variability and connectivity of plaice populations from the Eastern North Sea to the Western Baltic Sea, and implications for assessment and management

An essential prerequisite of sustainable fisheries is the match between biologically relevant processes and management action. Various populations may however co-occur on fishing grounds, although they might not belong to the same stock, leading to poor performance of stock assessment and management. Plaice in Kattegat and Skagerrak have traditionally been considered as one stock unit. Current understanding indicates that several plaice components may exist in the transition area between the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. A comprehensive review of all available biological knowledge on plaice in this area is performed, including published and unpublished literature together with the analyses of commercial and survey data and historical tagging data. The results suggest that plaice in Skagerrak is closely associated with plaice in the North Sea, although local populations are present in the area. Plaice in Kattegat, the Belts Sea and the Sound can be considered a stock unit, as is plaice in the Baltic Sea. The analyses revealed great heterogeneity in the dynamics and productivity of the various local components, and suggested for specific action to maintain biodiversity

Common variants upstream of KDR encoding VEGFR2 and in TTC39B associate with endometriosis.

To access publisher's full text version of this article, please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field or click on the hyperlink at the top of the page marked Files. This article is open access.We conducted a genome-wide association scan (GWAS) of endometriosis using 25.5 million sequence variants detected through whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of 8,453 Icelanders and imputed into 1,840 cases and 129,016 control women, followed by testing of associated variants in Danish samples. Here we report the discovery of a new endometriosis susceptibility locus on 4q12 (rs17773813[G], OR=1.28; P=3.8 × 10(-11)), upstream of KDR encoding vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (VEGFR2). The variant correlates with disease severity (P=0.0046) when moderate/severe endometriosis cases are tested against minimal/mild cases. We further report association of rs519664[T] in TTC39B on 9p22 with endometriosis (P=4.8 × 10(-10); OR=1.29). The involvement of KDR in endometriosis risk highlights the importance of the VEGF pathway in the pathogenesis of the disease.e Danish National Research Foundation. Additional support for the DNBC has been obtained from the Danish Pharmacists’ Fund, the Egmont Foundation, the March of Dimes Birth Defects Foundation, the Augustinus Foundation and the Health Fund of the Danish Health Insurance Societies. B.F. is supported by an Oak Foundation fellowshi

A systematic review of the incidence of schizophrenia: the distribution of rates and the influence of sex, urbanicity, migrant status and methodology

BACKGROUND: Understanding variations in the incidence of schizophrenia is a crucial step in unravelling the aetiology of this group of disorders. The aims of this review are to systematically identify studies related to the incidence of schizophrenia, to describe the key features of these studies, and to explore the distribution of rates derived from these studies. METHODS: Studies with original data related to the incidence of schizophrenia (published 1965–2001) were identified via searching electronic databases, reviewing citations and writing to authors. These studies were divided into core studies, migrant studies, cohort studies and studies based on Other Special Groups. Between- and within-study filters were applied in order to identify discrete rates. Cumulative plots of these rates were made and these distributions were compared when the underlying rates were sorted according to sex, urbanicity, migrant status and various methodological features. RESULTS: We identified 100 core studies, 24 migrant studies, 23 cohort studies and 14 studies based on Other Special Groups. These studies, which were drawn from 33 countries, generated a total of 1,458 rates. Based on discrete core data for persons (55 studies and 170 rates), the distribution of rates was asymmetric and had a median value (10%–90% quantile) of 15.2 (7.7–43.0) per 100,000. The distribution of rates was significantly higher in males compared to females; the male/female rate ratio median (10%–90% quantile) was 1.40 (0.9–2.4). Those studies conducted in urban versus mixed urban-rural catchment areas generated significantly higher rate distributions. The distribution of rates in migrants was significantly higher compared to native-born; the migrant/native-born rate ratio median (10%–90% quantile) was 4.6 (1.0–12.8). Apart from the finding that older studies reported higher rates, other study features were not associated with significantly different rate distributions (e.g. overall quality, methods related to case finding, diagnostic confirmation and criteria, the use of age-standardization and age range). CONCLUSIONS: There is a wealth of data available on the incidence of schizophrenia. The width and skew of the rate distribution, and the significant impact of sex, urbanicity and migrant status on these distributions, indicate substantial variations in the incidence of schizophrenia

Cancer risk among users of neuroleptic medication: a population-based cohort study

It has been suggested that neuroleptic medication may decrease cancer risk. We compared cancer risks in a population-based cohort study of 25 264 users (⩾2 prescriptions) of neuroleptic medications in the county of North Jutland, Denmark, during 1989–2002, with that of county residents who did not receive such prescriptions. Statistical analyses were based on age-standardisation and Poisson regression analysis, adjusting for age, calendar period, COPD, liver cirrhosis or alcoholism, use of NSAID, and, for breast cancer, additionally for use of hormone therapy, age at first birth, and number of children. Use of neuroleptic medications was associated with a decreased risk for rectal cancer in both women and men (adjusted IRRs of 0.61 (95% confidence interval, 0.41–0.91) and 0.82 (0.56–1.19), respectively) and for colon cancer in female users (0.78; 0.62–0.98). Some risk reduction was seen for prostate cancer (0.87; 0.69–1.08), but breast cancer risk was close to unity (0.93; 0.74–1.17). Overall, treatment with neuroleptic medications was not related to a reduced risk of cancer, but for cancers of the rectum, colon and prostate there were suggestive decreases in risk

Analysis of the Neurotoxin Complex Genes in Clostridium botulinum A1-A4 and B1 Strains: BoNT/A3, /Ba4 and /B1 Clusters Are Located within Plasmids

BACKGROUND: Clostridium botulinum and related clostridial species express extremely potent neurotoxins known as botulinum neurotoxins (BoNTs) that cause long-lasting, potentially fatal intoxications in humans and other mammals. The amino acid variation within the BoNT is used to categorize the species into seven immunologically distinct BoNT serotypes (A-G) which are further divided into subtypes. The BoNTs are located within two generally conserved gene arrangements known as botulinum progenitor complexes which encode toxin-associated proteins involved in toxin stability and expression. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Because serotype A and B strains are responsible for the vast majority of human botulism cases worldwide, the location, arrangement and sequences of genes from eight different toxin complexes representing four different BoNT/A subtypes (BoNT/A1-Ba4) and one BoNT/B1 strain were examined. The bivalent Ba4 strain contained both the BoNT/A4 and BoNT/bvB toxin clusters. The arrangements of the BoNT/A3 and BoNT/A4 subtypes differed from the BoNT/A1 strains and were similar to those of BoNT/A2. However, unlike the BoNT/A2 subtype, the toxin complex genes of BoNT/A3 and BoNT/A4 were found within large plasmids and not within the chromosome. In the Ba4 strain, both BoNT toxin clusters (A4 and bivalent B) were located within the same 270 kb plasmid, separated by 97 kb. Complete genomic sequencing of the BoNT/B1 strain also revealed that its toxin complex genes were located within a 149 kb plasmid and the BoNT/A3 complex is within a 267 kb plasmid. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Despite their size differences and the BoNT genes they contain, the three plasmids containing these toxin cluster genes share significant sequence identity. The presence of partial insertion sequence (IS) elements, evidence of recombination/gene duplication events, and the discovery of the BoNT/A3, BoNT/Ba4 and BoNT/B1 toxin complex genes within plasmids illustrate the different mechanisms by which these genes move among diverse genetic backgrounds of C. botulinum

Using Polarized Spectroscopy to Investigate Order in Thin-Films of Ionic Self-Assembled Materials Based on Azo-Dyes

Three series of ionic self-assembled materials based on anionic azo-dyes and cationic benzalkonium surfactants were synthesized and thin films were prepared by spin-casting. These thin films appear isotropic when investigated with polarized optical microscopy, although they are highly anisotropic. Here, three series of homologous materials were studied to rationalize this observation. Investigating thin films of ordered molecular materials relies to a large extent on advanced experimental methods and large research infrastructure. A statement that in particular is true for thin films with nanoscopic order, where X-ray reflectometry, X-ray and neutron scattering, electron microscopy and atom force microscopy (AFM) has to be used to elucidate film morphology and the underlying molecular structure. Here, the thin films were investigated using AFM, optical microscopy and polarized absorption spectroscopy. It was shown that by using numerical method for treating the polarized absorption spectroscopy data, the molecular structure can be elucidated. Further, it was shown that polarized optical spectroscopy is a general tool that allows determination of the molecular order in thin films. Finally, it was found that full control of thermal history and rigorous control of the ionic self-assembly conditions are required to reproducibly make these materials of high nanoscopic order. Similarly, the conditions for spin-casting are shown to be determining for the overall thin film morphology, while molecular order is maintained